Over the past month, Leica has been in film mode with the announcement of the resurrected M6. But what of the digital arsenal going into the mid-Twenties? As we reach the end of 2022, we can speculate based on what has gone before in terms of product cycles. But past schedules are not an accurate guide, so here are a few thoughts to be going on with.
Overview
The M is Leica’s bread-and-butter product and used to be relatively easy to predict. There was a well-charted course of development, with -P (professional) and -M (monochrome) variations at regular intervals before the major update and model number change. But more on that later.
The Q and SL ranges follow a less structured path, but it is known that the SL3 is on the stocks; it’s just a matter of when. I suspect we will have to wait until 2024 for this one.
The Q3 is also coming, and I am fairly confident we will see this new model in the first quarter of 2023. The original Q, a surprise success, arrived in June 2015 and was followed four years later by the Q2 in March 2019, so a 2023 launch for the next model is logical.
Both the current Q2 and SL2 share a similar 47.3MP sensor, while the M11 uses a 60 MP sensor from a different source. Launched after the other two cameras, the M11 sports “triple resolution technology”, which offers a choice of three RAW image resolutions (60, 36 and 18MP).
The two-lower resolution options use pixel binning and are saved at the smaller sizes. Users have taken to this, enjoying the option of using a lower resolution, with improved low-light performance and easier storage, or the full-blown resolution benefits of the 60MP sensor.
The upcoming Q3 and SL3 models will almost certainly feature a higher resolution sensor, and 60MP seems to be the current sweet spot. It will be interesting to see if the triple-resolution technology can be carried over from the M11.
I am not speculating on the medium-format mirrorless camera that Leica is working on. If it does materialise, it will probably not arrive until 2025.
Let’s look at what customers are looking for in the new models.
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Q3 picks
My top wishes for the Q3 would be a higher-resolution sensor, let’s say 60MP or thereabouts, and, possibly, an upgrade in viewfinder resolution from the current 3.37 million dots to something similar to the excellent 5.76 million-dot device, which is such a compelling feature of the SL2. A 60 MP sensor would permit crops to, say, the equivalent of 90mm with reasonable results.
I also look forward to a substantial internal memory, perhaps mirroring the M11’s 60GB and a USB connection for data and charging (the Q2 is the only current European-made Leica without a USB socket, and its absence is an increasing irritant for me).
Internal storage is a way for Leica to compete with the twin card slots which are now offered on most new cameras and which are not possible on M and Q bodies because of the limited space caused by design constraints.
I do not think Leica will tamper with the successful body profile of the Q any more than it would again be tempted to meddle with the concept of the M (remember the M5?).
And there have been no suggestions that the excellent 28 mm Summilux f/1.7 optic will be superseded. There have been occasional calls for an alternative focal length, such as 35 mm or 50 mm, but the 28 mm Q format is now so well-established and successful that I believe it will continue, come what may.
Many users, initially sceptical at the usability of such a wide-angle lens, are now fierce 28mm evangelists. And, with higher-resolution sensors, cropping to 35mm or 50mm is perfectly possible. So Leica is likely to want to steer a steady course.
However, there is still a good possibility that we could see a supplementary Q model with a longer lens. Certainly, this would not be 35mm because it is too close to 28mm, and 50mm would be my preference. An outsider option would be 40mm, following Ricoh’s lead with the GRIII and GRIIIx.
Until I heard Stefan Daniel speaking at the LSI Dublin meeting, I would have said such a longer-lens Q was unlikely. However, he pointedly did not rule out a longer lens, so it must be at least possible.
The back layout of the Q2 is already almost identical to that of the M11, with the now familiar spartan three-button layout, and I do not see any prospect of changes in the controls.
SL3 picks
It’s too early to speculate much about the SL3, which we will probably not see until the first quarter of 2024. It will almost certainly get a sensor upgrade, perhaps leapfrogging the Q3, and could well benefit from increased cooperation with Panasonic as part of the new L² Technology programme. I have heard a whisper that things are moving in that direction.
While the SL3 will certainly retain the established body profile with the now-typical Leica control layout — more appealing to me than the more cluttered multi-button approach at LUMIX — there is perhaps room for some minor tweaks, possibly a more streamlined form and even a modest weight or size saving.
The inner technology will likely rely more on inter-brand cooperation, and any new Panasonic S cameras arriving next year could offer pointers to the SL3.
Of all the current Leica digital models, the SL is the one that gives me the most concern. The constant marketing ploys and special offers do not auger well for the camera’s long-term future. You do not see this level of marketing intervention with the M and the Q, both of which appear to be doing well without discounts, bundles and packages. But the more schemes Leica introduces to bolster the SL, the more we can wonder if sales are meeting expectations.
One common criticism of the SL is that it is too large and heavy. In reality, this isn’t the case when the SL is compared with its peers from other manufacturers, including Panasonic LUMIX with the similar-sized S range. Yet there is a demand for a smaller L-mount camera, which becomes apparent in any discussion among Leica enthusiasts. The LUMIX S5 is such a camera, and it looks like a new version is almost ready for announcement.
Despite this latent demand, I do not expect to see a lightweight L-mount camera manufactured by Leica in Europe. We will have to leave that to Panasonic and Sigma. For one thing, Leica’s L lenses are built for maximum quality, and none are what we might consider light. Most of them sit more happily on the bulky form of the current SL2. So, if Leica did make a smaller camera, it would be an invitation to buy third-party lenses rather than Leica’s own offerings.
However, cannibalisation or not, a D-Lux-type rebadging of the new S5 could put some new life into Leica’s L-mount range and draw in some fresh blood to the marque. We can hope…
Plotting the M
The rangefinder seems to have settled into a fairly well-established road map. We all know the M, M-P, and M-M succession, and past models’ dates can offer a vague guide to when to expect enhancements to the M11 and to the M12. When will the Monochrom arrive? Is there going to be an M11-P this time around?
Some readers can’t wait:
Please let me know when I need to put my advance preorder in for the M11 monochrome as I have sold my amazing M10-M in anticipation. The M10-M was spectacular but I want to get down to one battery
— Brian Nicol
So, let’s take look at the M10 dates and duplicate them to cover the M11 and M12 series. This is purely based on historical data, and we shouldn’t read much into the projections, which are already looking a bit shaky. Here’s what the future could look like if Leica followed the blueprint of the M10 series, which I don’t think it will:
| Model | M | M-P | M-M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leica M10 | Jan 2017 | Aug 2018 | Jan 2020 |
| — Interval | 18 months | 36 months | |
| Leica M11 | Jan 2022 | Aug 2023 | Jan 2025 |
| — Interval | 24 months | 18 months | 36 months |
| Leica M12 | Jan 2027 | Aug 2028 | Jan 2030 |
There are several provisos in this simple table, not the least being the effect of the pandemic in possibly delaying the launch of the M11 and the unexpected delay in the arrival of the M10-M, which is unlikely to be repeated in this cycle. This time around, for instance, the M11 Monochrom is almost ready and could come sooner than anyone expects — or than the above table would suggest.
Up to now, the Monochrom versions have tended to come late in the product cycle and then overlap with the new series base model for a considerable time. The current M10-M is already ten months into M11 territory, but it is likely that all M10 variants, including the Monochrom, have already ceased production.
There has been no confirmation of this from the factory, although information has leaked out from dealers in the USA. If this is correct, Leica cannot manage much longer without a current Monochrom.
Earlier this year, I heard a whisper that the M11 Monochrom could come as early as Q3 in 2023, and I think this is now likely So far, I have heard nothing about the M11-P, and I suspect it will now launch after the M11-M but probably before the end of 2023.
I have not included the -R versions in the above table since I assume the M10-R was a one-off and that we will not see an M11-R. But never say never.
M with EVF
Finally, we come to the rumour that refuses to go away: an M body with EVF in place of the rangefinder. Stefan Daniel has said that, at the very least, the factory would consider such a camera if the demand was there.
Back in June, I wrote about this suggestion of an M body with an EVF in place of the rangefinder. However, I mentioned Stefan’s statement, “M stands for Messsucher, and as long as I have anything to say at Leica, the M will always have a rangefinder”1.
Stefan chooses his words carefully, and I believe that any M-body with EVF would have to be distanced from the M range. If it does come, it will be a supplementary body aimed at those who want the option of built-in electronic focus. It would gather in the small but influential band of older customers who suffer problems focusing the rangefinder accurately and for whom the SL bodies may be too large and heavy. Currently, they have to look outside Leica for a lighter-weight mirrorless body on which to mount their M glass.
Mainly, though, an M-EVF will be seen as an alternative body for existing rangefinder fans. It ought to be cheaper because the rangefinder mechanism is expensive and needs very careful installation. But I wouldn’t count on this. It could even be sold at a higher price because, like the old M10-D, it would have a relatively small production run.
One thing for sure is that we are not going to see a hybrid viewfinder. Leica has tried that and decided that it is not feasible without compromising the traditional rangefinder experience.
Thus, we return to an M lookalike with an EVF in place of the rangefinder and a new model designation. I’ve heard suggestions it could be the “M-E”, an established moniker, but this fails the Daniel test. It includes the letter M, which, as we know, stands for “rangefinder” in German.
I suggested Leica E, which follows tradition, substituting E(electronic) for M(esssucher). It works in both German and English. An outside possibility is a resurrection of the R prefix. RE, for instance, but this is highly unlikely.
Whatever this camera is called, if it is eventually produced, there will be a way of sneaking it into the range without infuriating die-hard rangefinder fans who rightly guard that M prefix jealously.
Yet, amid all the conjecture, I am not convinced that there will be sufficient demand for this camera. I will go into this in more detail in another article, but the current arrangement of M11 with the Visoflex option is cheaper and just as effective. The accessory Visoflex 2 also has one big advantage in its ability to tilt, which is welcomed by older users (many of whom are at the forefront in calling for an M-EVF on failing eyesight grounds. Perhaps they should also consider their knees). On the other hand, the add-on Visoflex does make the camera more unwieldy, and it is easy to see why some would prefer an integral viewfinder.
Mike’s Law
Finally, don’t forget to bear in mind Mike’s Law:
The more special editions, the nearer are we to the new model.
— the Editor
I have no inside knowledge, although I keep my eyes and ears open. This article contains a lot of conjecture and is written as much to generate discussion as to predict the future.
Let us know what you think. What are you most want to see from Leica in the next 24 months?
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- Also M steht für Messsucher – und so lange ich bei Leica noch etwas zu sagen habe, wird die M einen Messsucher haben — Stefan Daniel ↩
Anything truly ‘new’ will very likely require more than 24 months to design / prototype / test / set up production & marketing. Of paramount importance to so many Leica enthusiasts, is ‘cut above the rest’ Leica image quality. There are those (I could name some of them) who still much prefer CCD sensors’ images to those of CMOS sensors – hence there is still a very good s/h market for CCD Leica ‘M’s. Development of a new FF CCD ICL Leica might be justified by its potential demand – and because customers would be more interested in its ‘film-like’ imaging as distinct from high ISO capability, such a ‘slow but sure’ camera could find a ready market. I’ve just read Jono’s comment about his experience years ago with his Olympus E-1 and the quality A2 images he produced from its 5mp sensor – a Kodak CCD sensor. Imagine the potential image quality attainable with e.g, a 24mp or greater CCD sensor – it could maybe out-perform a Q3 and being an ICL model would be cheaper to manufacture. And, BTW, the 20 years young 5mp Olympus E-1 still commands a premium price compared to other ancient pro quality digital cameras – because of its film-like images.
My dream leica was always a leaf shutter 6×7 film camera to shame the poor plastic but optically excellent mamiya 7 that has went price crazy within the last 10 years. A really real texas sized leica!
Also an EVF M style camera that could also function as a turn key macro film digitizing set up like the negative supply equipment.
Time to stop being a daydreaming weirdo and leave my house to mow other people’s lawns all day.
A full frame M-mount camera with an evf, similar to the discontinued Leica CL but with a non-cropped sensor instead of APSC, that’s all I ask for. Light and small! Use some plastic, even (NASA-grade, whatever!). But do make it light and small ❤️
And pretty sure there’s many people like me! I love the quality of m glass on my Leica SL, but it is soooo heavy and so big. M cameras are a bit smaller, but they are superheavy too and, let’s face it, rangefinders are a thing of the past! EVF, please! A full frame CL!! Take my money!
What’s more, the camera I propose would be truer to Oskar Barnack’s original idea of the Leica: a small and light camera one could carry everywhere. That revolutionary idea is the key to the success and genuine beauty of the original Leicas, nothing to do with the luxury items they’ve degenerated into. In my opinion, a tiny Ricoh GR or a light Fuji X-Pro is nowadays truer to that spirit. Maybe the CL has been the best camera in that sense. But let’s make it full frame and enjoy all the amazing lenses there are! Those are my two cents. Warm regards!
Id go for something A7c sized which takes SL lenses, much smaller and lighter than the SL2 with a couple of pancake lenses
I agree. I’d love either an M body with a built in EVF or a Q body with an M mount. I would get it for my 50mm & 90mm M lenses. I still prefer the rangefinder for my 35mm lens. I’d love a tilt screen as well since I find myself shooting above my head and at waist level a ton on both my Q2 and my M cameras.
Looking forward to picking up a Q3 if they add a tilt screen. I don’t really care much for higher resolution on the Q sensor I’m just hoping for increased low light capability. If they release a Q50 I’ll pick up one of those for sure.
A Q with an M mount is simply not feasible because the design and construction of the Q/Q2 is so different the task of adding lenses of different focal lengths is not easy. The shutter is built into the lens and the lens is built into the camera – there’s no mount – and the sensor position is optimized for that setup. To add 35 or 50 or 75 would require re-engineering the camera from the ground up. And that’s before you add the complexities of OIS.
I meant IBIS, not OIS, obviously.
All good points. I’m sure you are right that it’s more complex than it sounds I’m just saying that’s my wishlist! I’ll settle for a M11-EVF and a Q3 with a tilt screen for now.
With the 28mm summilux m as big as it is Leica pulled off an awesome feat to get the Q with its autofocus f/1.7 lens down to that size. It makes me believe that they could come up with a Q50 built with a summicron or a summilux at a similar size given that my 50 cron and lux are pretty compact.
I’d love to see an M with an EVF, whatever it is called (M, E,…).
I’d certainly buy one, and I’d still keep on using my current M11. Both options would be great !
That’s called charity and is not what shareholders want from their investment.
I have to keep reminding myself that Leica Camera AG has only two shareholders, Blackstone (45%) and the Austrian investment company, ACM Projektentwicklung GmbH (55%)[aka Dr. K and family]. So they can basically do whatever tickles their fancy, as long as it continues to make money.
Because its so popular theyve ramped production right up achieved production savings and want to sell even more?
I hope youre wrong about the SL system, its magnificent, Ive tried three times to get into the M system and just cant get on with it, rangefinder focusing seems a masochistic pursuit in 2022. I remember speculation the M system had its days numbered a while back, my local Leica branch cant get enough SL2 cameras to meet demand…
Since the article I had heart several similar stories, so it looks like the SL has a lot more life in it yet. Let’s hope so, because Leica cannot afford for it to fail. We should keep our fingers crossed!
Why then give discounts of $1,300 if they cannot meet demand…?
Exactly! That’s a great example of poor market planning and poor marketing. What it says is that $1300 may be too much of a discount and $0 may be too little. Either way the implication is that the camera is overpriced and that normal pricing Leica is producing too much product.
Probably I’ll sell my SL2s and get a Panasonic S5II (whatever the name) as my next camera.
The lack of a tilt screen is a dealbreaker for me.
Also size and weight. No matter how you spin it, other brands have substantially lighter options.
My wish list for Leica SL3 would be to ditch the purely contrast based auto-focus system and follow all those who have vastly better auto-focus using phase detect, or a phase/contrast hybrid system. I don’t photograph much sport, but when I do I revert to habits such as pre-focusing and waiting for the action to come to my focus point as the face/body detect or tracking options are too unreliable. On a related topic would be buffer size and burst speeds. I recently took photos of my son in a rowing regatta (not a high speed sport) but when standing on the bank, you have a very limited window of opportunity to capture them before they are too far away, or obscured by other boats, trees etc. I found it frustrating that in medium speed bursts I quickly ran out of buffer. Equally when I tried to switch to high speed bursts I got the message that the battery didn’t have enough charge to support high speed shooting.
A re-badged Panasonic S5 would make sense for those wanting a smaller, but more ergonomic body. Equally if Leica joined forces with Panasonic to produce a GX9 style (range finder style) full frame, compact body I would join the queue.
Your experience matches mine Tom. Within a month my SL2 persistently failed to cope with high speed burst shooting of any sports – a bit of skiing, a bit of mountain biking. Initially I was told it was because I was using the Sigma 45 but that was inaccurate because it refused with the 24-90 in situ. I never knew what battery level was the cut off for failure to perform. The problem developed with 70% charge. On the L forum there was a certain amount of nay saying akin to climate change denial and I was told by one observer it is preferable to shoot with a power bank always connected to SL2 for such subjects !! I am afraid I quickly gave up thinking about ever using the SL2 for recreational action as a result. Pity because despite folk saying it’s AF was not fast enough I found it was. Really, though,unacceptable that we have had a £5,500 body which cannot reliably execute high burst shooting of JPEGs. As far as I followed the issue after giving up I cannot see that Leica ever acknowledged the problem or resolved it.
Hi Mike, a well thought out article saving me a lot of research. I am expecting the M11 monochrom to appear faster than the M10 version. I sold mine because the M11 is an adequate B&W camera for now and I had a need for funding more pressing glass at the time. However, I do miss the high ISO and sublime files of the 10M.
My only wishes for the SL3 are a locking centre focus point and a tilting LCD screen – for a more natural perspective at times and discrete photography. I am not holding my breath. Maybe I will bite the bullet and sell my SL2-S and buy a next generation Panasonic which is in reality maybe a rational decision since Leica product management seems to put ultimate design aesthetics over functionality.
The Leica C-Lux is 4 years old now, but I guess an upgrade has to wait for Panasonic to upgrade the Lumix ZS range
There is a real possibility that these Panasonic cameras will not be upgraded and may fall by the wayside. I hope not, but the market for these cameras must be limited.
Thanks Mike,
Lots of food for thought in there.
USB-C charging and multi-res sensor to boost low-light performance and give file size options would for me, make the Q3 perfect. Personally, I’m not a fan of angled screens and at a push I can use Leica Fotos app on my phone as an extended EVF.
What about a variant of the M11 (M-E) which is manual focus only! I don’t need AF on an M camera and it would be much easier to make. This would be my perfect second camera next to the M11. It’s just like using the SL2-S with M lenses but in an ‘M’ form factor. What do you think?
Surely, an M camera that takes L-Mount AF lenses isn’t an M any more, it’s a full-frame CL. You might as well make the Q2, L-mount but supply it with a removable version of it’s current 28lux f1.7
There you go, a few spanners for the metaphorical works and a few ‘Marmite’ options to incite the haters 🙂
Leica Q-M, a Q with manual focus for M lenses 😁 The possibilities are many, if Leica wants to do that. But they don’t!
Since the shutter of the Q2 is built into the lens this would create a challenge! You would have to build a completely new shutter mechanism back into the body, figure out where to put IBIS as a replacement for OIS, move the sensor back, and find a way to build the M-mount into the structure. You then need to rewrite the OS to make it all work.
From an economic perspective I would think it would be cheaper to keep using M lenses with an M adaptor on T/Tl/TL2/CL/SL/SL2-S, not forgetting any other cameras that take the adaptor…
I just learned a new thing today about the Q2, didn’t realise the shutter was built into the lens. That explains a lot.
I presume you mean a Q body with M mount and manual focus only? I suppose this is a possibility, of course, but I don’t think it has been seriously mentioned. It would require an all-new body, even if it looked similar to the Q. All the attention has been focused on an M body with EVF.
Rod, I’m not quite sure what you mean here in relation to the M-mount camera with EVF. Autofocus doesn’t come into the mix at all. If they did produce the “M-E”, it would be just as you suggest, an M-mount camera with manual focus only. As for L-mount, I don’t think anyone has suggested an M body with L mount, or are you thinking of something else?
Thank god for that, I thought I saw something about an AF, M somewhere. Might have mis-read that. The M-E as you describe would be a good addition. Pricing would be interesting, in theory it should be a lot cheaper than a rangefinder but…
L-Mount on an M was just a spanner in the works I agree it doesn’t work at all. I was trying to work out how they would do AF on an M again. Doesn’t sound like that’s ever an option hopefully.
No, I don’t think there is any call for AF on an M, even if it were feasible which it isn’t. The beauty of the system is that it is manual focus and this means superb lenses can be small and light. Just look at the size of similar-quality L lenses.
This is terrific and very helpful. I have a few thoughts…
In other industries component sharing is the norm as a way o cut costs. I wonder how much Leica does this already and whether with L2 there will be more opportunities to do so below the skin of the camera?
You do not mention the addition of a “Flippy-Flappy” rear screen for the Q3. Did anyone at Leica mention this in discussion? I know it’s a polarizing feature but it would be interesting to know.
“ Currently, they have to look outside Leica for a lighter-weight mirrorless body on which to mount their M glass.” That used to be called the CL and I wonder what impact this has had on this particular group’s purchasing behavior and brand loyalty.
I think there already is considerably component sharing with the Leica SL and Panasonic S cameras and I suspect this will be a growing trend. Stefan Daniel said that it no longer makes sense to develop a new camera in isolation. Leica already depends on Panasonic for much of the electronics. I would be extremely surprised if the new SL3 or Q3 featured a tilting screen. They’ve stuck resolutely to this principle, even with the CL, probably because it complicates the lines of the camera and will add a little to the depth. With the M, in particular, this is a crucial factor in the desire to mirror the size and format of the M7, if not quite the M3.
Still my dream: the Panasonic GX 9 with M- Mount, Ibis and 24×36 Sensor!
I agree with you, provided it is around GX9 price! Despite my comments on the desirability of an M body with EVF, I think there is a a demand for an M-mount camera which doesn’t necessarily have to follow the M style. The Internet is full of videos and stories about using manual M lenses on a wide variety of digital cameras, yet all need adaptors and bring compromises. A camera body (such as the GX9) with M mount and designed to work efficiently with M lenses would be an instant success. It’s wonder no company has done this already.
I already use my M lenses on my LUMIX GX cameras. B&H and Adorama sell the MFTs to M adapter…
I do not think Leica will remain immune from the looming global recession, which some predict will be deeper, and last longer, than first thought. So, time-scales of development and launching of new products are bound to be impacted, to some degree.
Interestingly, the stats show that people tend to buy very high end luxury goods during recessions. Luxury brands show little signs of slowing down wven though many have double their prices in the last 5 years.